Endogenous Heterogeneity in Macroeconomic Forecasting - [Working paper with Blake LeBaron]
This paper implements a model with a population of heterogeneous macro forecasters. Their objectives are to forecast output and inflation, both inputs in standard New Keynesian macro models. The model is implemented by first calibrating the agents to professional forecasters at the micro level. Model runs then try to replicate both the dynamics, bias, and cross-sectional heterogeneity of forecasts and the economy. These are done both in a model with static forecasters, and one where the forecasters are learning from each other in a social/epidemiological fashion.